Hurricanes and the Sun

11 Sep 2017

William sent in a link to ... the TPOD by Stephen Smith discusses solar eruptions and how they may impact with weather events on Earth - such as hurricanes. It asks - is it a coincidence that Hurricane Katrina (Aug 29th 2005) and Hurricane Rita (Sept 23rd 2005) occurred on either side of a large X-flare. We might ask - why would weather on Earth be affected by the solar wind 'before' a major flare had arrived to impact the atmosphere. It would seem a coincidence is more likely.

The point of the post then materialises as 12 years later Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma were also either side of another major solar flare (but not forgetting Hurricane Jose chugging along behind them). Do violent electromagnetic changes on the Sun initiate violent weather episodes on Earth? To which we may wonder - what about all the solar flares between 2005 and 2017 (but no hurricanes made landfall in the US). The key may lie in the last few words but one can make all kinds of synchronisms but are they real - or imaginary. I was struck by the way some solar flares loaded the atmosphere with heat and energy - but many others do not. The reason for this is all a bit complicated and if it was simple it would have been obvious a long time ago.

Having said that, mainstream gets itself in a tangle over hurricanes, even people with views contrary to the CAGW linkage favoured by the likes of the BBC and other self righteous media outlets. At sahel/ ... which begins with a paper published on Sahara dust and climate (report on the News a few weeks back). Sahara dust, it is alleged, has a connection with AMO variations (Atlantic oscillation - which in turn is closely bound up with heat accumulating in the Pacific and spawning El Nino events and the Southern Oscillation (impacting as it does on Atlantic oscillation, or the movement of warm water around the globe). Hurricanes, it is said, have long timescales of variability. This is not a reference for the lack of Hurricanes making landfall in the US over the last 12 years but an even long timescale that is supposed to be linked to AMO events (and changes). Doug Smith from the Met Office said there were quiet periods between 1900 and 1920, and again from 1970 to 1980, with active periods 1930 to 1960 and since 1995. The latter appears to be a bit of a projection as we have noted no major hurricanes between 2005 and 2017 (but never mind). He is talking about AMO activity - nothing to do with the Sun (or that is the assumption). We did have that big El Nino event in 2015, and a similar size El Nino in 1998 - hence his idea of activity. On average, he says, active periods have 40% more hurricanes - which doesn't seem to significant increase on the face of it. Meaning, it could once again, be coincidence. Is it all down to dust and aerosols as Homewood seems to project - or does it have a geomagnetic origin? As a result of AMO periodicity the Sahel experiences wet and dry regimes. When the Sahel is wetter there are more hurricanes breeding off the NW of African, leading to hurricanes that end up in the Caribbean. Now, if geomagnetic activity caused changes in AMO and then Stephen Smith might have a better case but touting solar flares causing hurricanes by itself is making a connection with the end result before establishing a mitigating effect. See also

Just to confuse matters, we have Hurricane Jose coming up behind Hurricane Harvey and Irma and at (Sept 11th) we have another solar flare on its way - impacting the magnetosphere on the 13th. Will that invigorate Jose (which has become somewhat sluggish)?