Pieres and Habibullo

26 May 2017

At http://principia-scientific.org/mini-ice-age-stay-says-astrophysicist/ ... Piers Corbyn, brother of Jeremy the Labour Party leader, is undoubtedly many measure more clever than his erstwhile politician sibling, described here as an astrophysicist. In a brush with a Lib Dem politician, the latter was left bemused, commenting 'what a strange man ...' which may be due to the shock of having the Lib Dem fantasy over global warming pulled to shreds by a bloke that becomes irate very quickly. Jeremy needs the votes of the Green Blob too so we haven't heard much about climate change in the lead up to the June election. Does he share his brother's opinion on the topic? 

Piers Corbyn runs the web site www.weatheraction.com which sells weather forecasts to farmers and businesses. His predictions are long term - months in advance (quite unlike the Met Office for example that can only manage a week at best). They are based on a luni-solar model. He has spoken at an Electric Universe conference in the US and has given a talk at one of our speaker meetings - which was entertaining. See www.sis-group.org.uk/event/2015-04-25/2015-spring-meeting-agm.htm

Corbyn has shown that temperatures in both the northern and southern hemispheres during April and early May were cool - and he pointed a finger at low sun spot numbers. He says cool weather is to be expected in coming years, raising the spectre of a mini ice age. Not sure he is actually saying that as it could be journalistic largesse (over egging the mix). He might just be saying we are entering the cooler, La Nina dominated, 30 year phase of the 60 year cycle. One might describe that as a mini ice age I suppose - a repeat of the weather patterns of the 1950s to 1970s. The current warm weather in the UK seems to be related to the big earth facing coronal hole on the sun that sent a burst of plasma towards us a few days ago. Don't suppoe it will last long until it is expelled from the earth system. Is everywhere warmer in late May? See for example www spaceweather.com

According to Russian astrophysicist Habibullo Abdussamatov, this mini ice age began in 2015. This is one of the years climate scientists say was just the opposite. Abdussamatov predicts it will get even cooler as the 21st century progresses, a prediction based on sun spot numbers and past experience (the Maunder Minimum for example). However, we may note that in the 17th century, the Little Ice Age coincided with lots of dust and debris in the upper atmosphere as a result of volcanoes and heavy meteoric activity (which is well recorded). The opaque sky was enough to reduce global average temperatures by screening sunlight. This is not happening in the 21st century. Are these astrophysicists going to end up feeling embarrassed?