Sea Level Rise

19 Jan 2019

This is not really a climate change story but a geological one. One subject beloved of alarmists is sea level rise - coasts will be inundated and islands will shrink (or even disappear beneath the waves). Emotional types get all worked up but realists shrug their shoulders. What's new. At ... rapid sea level rise is supposed to shrink islands and coastal zones, flooding what is now land, the watery deep swallowing up beaches (but not beach front property otherwise the great and the good would not still be buying homes in such a position). Funnily enough, over the last ten years atolls have exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilisation in respect of sea level rise. Some 88.6% of islands were either stable or had increased in area - but, it is true that 11.4% of islands have contracted. The conclusion was that island stability was a global phenomenon.

Coastal areas were also analysed and to the genuine surprise of the scientists, coastlines had gained more land rather than losing it (some 13,000 square miles as opposed to areas lost to water at 7800 square miles). Tectonic processes also play a role here rather than naked sea level rise (as a result of glacier shrinkage and run-off). Satellite observations show there has been a large net growth in land area between 1985 and 2015 - which you may note covers the period when global warming and rising sea levels were at the height of hype and alarmist projections. The research, by Ahmed et al (2018), specifically illustrates that land in Bangla Desh is accreting - as one would expect in a delta location. The idea that Bangla Desh is sinking is wholly incorrect - back to front thinking. The threat to coastlines comes not from global warming but from run of the mill geological processes - too boring for climate hype to bother taking onboard. These include subsidence as well as uplift - elementary geology. Aftab Khan in Geoscience Frontiers (2018) is a geophysicist and showed categorically that sea level rise and fall is primarily related to geological events (and has no connection to polar melt, as he described it). Vertical land movements are occurring all the time - downwards as well as upwards. Yet, currently we have enviros getting very emotional about Bangla Desh building coal fired power stations - they are going to hasten there disappearance beneath the Bay of Bengal. See ... but to get at the real story behind all this fluff go to ... which may sound like a conspiracy until you start thinking about it. Why wouldn't big hedge funds want to hype their investments. There are a lot of strands to this global warming story.