Weather Balloon v Models

24 Sep 2018

The recent McKitrick and Christy paper on measuring warming in the atmosphere via weather balloon data (over 60 years) in comparison to the results from modelling. The paper was written in the lead up to the next, 5th, IPCC Report on global warming (the report that keeps the alarmism on track). The latest report uses research from MCIP5 (The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) which consists of 20 climate modelling groups, worldwide. THey have provided the 5th Report with lots of its information - and seem to have lowered warming estimates (but do they require lowering still further). McKitrick and Christy thought it opportune to examine what are the basic assumptions built into the models and a summary of their paper was posted on September 17th at https://judithcurry.com/2018/09/17/a-test-of-the-tropical-200-300-mb-war... ... It would seem the models are still overestimating a warming trend in the atmosphere (see alsoo www.sepp.org 'The Week That Was' newsletter of September 22nd, 2018). McKitrick and Christy also point out a reduced warming rate was supported by the entire bulk atmosphere using 39 years of satellite observations and 61 years of balloon data. The IPCC has no basis for relying on CMIP5 models which have consistently overheated reality (and so on). Well worth a read if you have the time.