Escape from Model Land

4 Nov 2019

At https://judithcurry.com/2019/10/29/escape-from-model-land/ ... letting go of the phantastical mathematical objects and achievables of model land can lead to more relevant information  in the real world ... Erica Thompson and Larry Smith in a new paper with the title 'Escape from Model Land.' In this view model land is a hypothetical world in which mathematical simulations are evaluated against other mathematical simulations, mathematical model against each other (or the same) mathematical models, where everything is well-posed and models, and their imperfections, are known perfectly.

   ... Decision making in model land requires taking the subject of model simulations at face value and other interpreting frequencies in model land to represent probabilities in the real world. It is comfortable for researchers to remain in model land as everything in model land is well defined and we can prove and utilise theorems. Exploring the furthest reaches of model land is a positive career strategy as it is only limited by the available computational resources.

The Hawkmoth Effect. Thompson and Smith identify the hawkmoth effect, a model structured uncdertainty (or error). A summary of the hawkmoth effect might be - you can be close to the correct equation but still not close to the correct solutions. Due to the hawkmoth effect it is possible that even an approximation to the equations of the climate system may not give an answer which accurately reflects the future climate (and so on). Interesting read. In the comments a couple of modellers clearly do not like the tenor of the paper.

At www.cfact.org/2019/11/02/is-global-warming-all-due-to-super-el-ninos/ ...  David Wojak evaluates a paper by meteorologist Joe Bastardi who says El Ninos have caused all the atmospheric warming since satellite measurements began in 1978. Wojack had earlier suggested the same thing (two years ago) but Bastardi confirms it.

See www.cfact.org/2019/10/24/more-super-el-ninos-not-so-fast-my-friend/ ... by Joe Bastardi. Here he made his case in reply to a study at www.usatoday.com/story/news/2019/10/24/climate-change-trigger-more-extre... ... Joe Bastardi was prompted to reply following the alarmist claim El Ninos were set to become more extreme. The paper is important for understanding past climate history as much as debunking the models.