Jiggling the Pokery

30 Jul 2021

William sends me the odd climate change link but the subject comes with a lot of dedicated true believers and anything to the contrary is also subject to a bit of hyperbole. However, at https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2021/07/29/could-pacific-northwest-heatw... ... which is a nice take on the conflict within climate science. Likewise, the story is not fully proved and the other side can themselves, take some comfort. Could the Pacific Northwest heat wave and the European floods have been caused by the Sun? A good question. Climate change adherents have been quick to blame global warming, taking advantage of every opportunity to push the mantra at Joe Public. In the UK a week of sunshine and high temperatures also led to the BBC drooling like a demented banshee. This week the temperatures are half of what they were a fortnight ago. They don't mention that. Doesn't fit in with the gist of the propaganda. Are fossil fuels really causing the planet to warm? Why do climate scientists ignore the Sun? Assigning weather events to 'global warming' is ambiguous according to the link above, without a full definition of what the assigner might mean by using such a term. Jet stream blocking events are well known to meteorologists - see for example www.weatherpredictions.com/habyhints/144/ ... and to constantly claim them as evidence of human caused climate is a stretch of the evidence, if not jiggledy pokery. Climate scientists do not universally ascribe them to human causes such as the use of fossil fuels but the mainstream media does tend to ignore differences of scientific opinion, and instead, tend to stick closely to the alarmist mantra. Are they frightened of putting their head above the parapet? Are they admitting they are ignorant of the subject by kowtowing to the most vociferous party line?

Precipitation increases in a warmer world simply because of enhanced evaporation from the oceans - resulting in more water vapour in the atmosphere. What goes up must come down. It rains a bit more - sometimes a lot more if the conditions are right. So, with a blocking 'low' stuck over the Rhine valley, and with the ground already saturated from rainfall earlier in the week, it may not be surprising that swollen rivers overflowed. A similar argument can be invoked to explain an intense 'heat dome' that parked itself over bits of British Columbia, Washington State, and Oregon - for five days.  Yes, for just five days. You would not think that it was only five days from the traction gained by the doom merchants. Five days of extremely hot weather - as a result of a region of high pressure pinned in place by 'lows' on either side. Several cities in the NW experienced 5 degrees above previous heat records. However, thre is no doubt at all that both events are caused by jet stream blocking. Such blocks can induce very cold weather [as we sw in the UK a couple of years ago] or very hot weather [usually over a limited land mass]. This is reminiscent of the so called heat wave in Siberia last year. In actuality, it only affected a very small region and was done and dusted within a few days - yet the story persisted in western media for months, alleging Siberia was in heat wave situation. Siberia is a very large lump of the land mass. That is purposeful deception on the part of the journalists concerned - taking their cue from the activists. Yet, as journalists they must have known it did not encompass a very large area. That is basic geography. Why did they feel they had to exaggerate? However, the bigger question that is being asked by Tall Bloke is, was the blocking caused by the Sun. It is thought that changes in UV radiation with an origin in the Sun during its 11 year cycle causes wind shifts in earth's stratosphere.  This, in turn, causes blocking in the tropospheric jet streams via a feedback affect. That is probably open to dispute but that is what the link above quotes. Blocking can also be induced by other means. A 2008 research paper found blocking events were more common during low activity on the Sun. Until this year the Sun had very low activity in the trough between two solar cycles. Blocking events are not so common during periods of high solar activity - such as the middle of an 11 year cycle. At this point in time we are in a period of diminished solar output, signified by the lower rater of monthly sun spots. Atmospheric scientist Willie Soon is predicting a 30 year phase of global cooling. How will the media deal with that?

See also the original article at www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/7/26/could-pacific-northwest-heat-w...

There is a little more mischief at https://notrickszone.com/2021/07/29/there-were-23-global-warming-jolts-m... ... dozens of rapid warming and cooling periods episodically interrupted the last glacial - or Ice Age. This tends to put into the shade modern warming. Modern warming is really quite minimal in comparison with the past - and it must have been natural warming as humans were spread thinly around the planet and mostly used spears and clubs and that sort of thing. Why the warming and cooling occurred is another story and is open to research. Explanations so far are not very convincing. However, alarmist climate scientists tend to dismiss these events as regional. Why that would be so as research has been Euro and North American driven - giving the idea if was regional. In fact, the whole Ice Age theory itself is basically Euro and North American as far as most of the early research was concerned. It is only recently research by the Chinese and the Russians has been taken seriously. In fact, a study in the journal Science in 2020 determined that some of these episodes in the last glacial occurred in both hemispheres. This indicates the events were global - and the same is true of modern warming of course.