A revealing post at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/23/tisdale-on-the-problems-with-enso-… … is a good post by Bob Tisdale on his favourite topic, the ocean circulation system. He has written a book, Who tuned on the Heat? El Nino – Southern Oscillation, the Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, which basically says that El Ninos take warm water from the tropical Pacific to mid latitudes, where the global warming is noticed. IPCC climate models do not reflect the fact that El Nino over the last 30 years have been stronger than La Ninas, nor will they reflect the fact La Ninas will probably be more dominant over the next 30 yeears. The models are therefore skewed towards El Nino as noted by Guilyardi et al in a 2009 paper, 'Understanding El Nino in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models; progress and challenges'.