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El Nino On The Way

6 May 2023
Climate change

The story begins at https://www.netzerowatch.com/rapid-ocean-temperature-rise-puzzles-scientists/  … rapid ocean temperature changes are on the way as the planet moves from a persistant La Nina position into El Nino conditions. This will please the alarmists as global ocean temperatures appear to be a forewarning of El Nino – the only few times in the last 25 years that there has been an upward spike in global temperatures. Mostly, it has flatlined. Global ocean temperatures, later in the year, may rise by half a degree celsius, we are told. This will be enough to get the MSM in a feeding frenzy, wallowing in doom mongering. You are being forewarned, so it would seem. We are all going to die, once again. These spikes in temperature usually collapse once the El Nino inspired warm water travels through the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans, the ocean conveyor belt system, and then out into the Arctic – and subsequently up into the atmosphere in order to dump the excess heat. Therefore, in a year of so we can expect some North Pole sea ice melting to be part of the climate doomsday repertoire once again.

However, it is not necessarily what it seems, or quite so simple. For a start, the Tonga volcano, in 2022, added a significant amount of water vapour to the atmosphere. On top of that the current solar cycle is very active. Sun spots have reached maximum sooner than expected. Either of these two factors are perhaps playing a role in what is described by David Whitehouse as a curious anomaly. At this time of year the North Atlantic ‘s sea surface temperature is usually at a low point in the seasonal cycle. Not only that, why is the North Atlantic warming up long before El Nino pops its head out of the water in the mid Pacific, where it is thought to originate?  Hence, it may have nothing to do with El Nino – even though one might be brewing.

In contrast to this curiosity, over at https://notrickszone.com/2023/03-31/water-vapor-clouds-are-the-real-direct-masters-controlling-our-climate/ … which has a rather hopeful headline. Clouds reduce energy at the surface – restricting the amount of sunshine reaching the earth. You only have to be out in the April showers – full sun one minute and heat on you skin. Next minute a cloud passes overhead and it cools down and feels a bit chilly, especially if accompanied by some wind. They are not talking about ocean temperatures  this time and it has nothing to do with El Nino. However, water vapour is acknowledged as earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas – and it is much stronger than co2. Hence, one might point a finger at the Tonga volcano which sprayed huge amounts of ocean water up into the air, the water vapour droplets reaching giddy heights [see earlier posts on the subject].

Then we go to  Nature Geoscience at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01144-z … published on 16th March 2023. Here we learn that methane [and cow farts from double digestion] is also a greenhouse gas and therefore has a warming effect. This is not as simple as climate zealots allow as methane also absorbs incoming energy from the sun = shortwave energy. This should warm the planet, we are told, but there is a kink as shortwave absorption encourages changes in clouds that have a cooling effect. They cancel each other out. Does that mean cows can blissfully carry on farting as they munch the grass and herbs?

Finally, at https://phys.org/news/2023-05-world-el-nino-temperatures.html … and now it seems the UN are warning the world  of a growing likelihood of a devastating El NIno event on the horizon. They are salivating over the projected higher temperatures.

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