Some interesting pieces on the time lag between cool water in the Pacific, with an origin in the Southern Ocean, and its appearance in the Arctic Ocean, at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/29/tisdale-on-the-17-year-itch-yes-th… and at http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/05/02/sea-temperature-time-delay/ where EM Smith says the pop and drop point was in 1998/2000 but the time lag for the Arctic is not until 2016 – still a few years away. He suggests there is also considerable time lag in the Indian and South Atlantic regions and by 2020 all the oceans will be showing significant cooling trends. At that point, he says, CAGW will come to an end as it will be obvious even to the most blindly committed athat the weather is very cold (see also http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/05/17/iccc-day-two/). The bottom line in all of this is that the Arctic warming that recently melted so much of the summer ice comes from a 1990 hot Pacific – when El Nino was rife and dominated the system. None of the 'models' used by climate scientists allow for such a time lage yet here it is (in graphs and observation data) laid out on a plate.