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two extremes, it seems

18 August 2015
Climate change

At http://phys.org/print359028114.html … we are told that for the last 1800 years there has been, on average, a global cooling that has only been halted by modern global warming. The error of that statement is obvious. Within the average over the last 1800 years there were periods of warming within the cooling events – so is it an article of faith to say that current warming is any different than past warming events. The proof of the pudding will emerge over the course of time. Temperatures should be going up if global warming and the greenhouse effect are facts – but temperatures stubbornly refuse to budge from what is called an hiatus event. Temperatures are standing still, as predicted by the likes of Joe Bastardi.

The cooling parts of the last 1800 years are well known and well publicised – such as the period between 1200 and 1500 and the period between 1600 to 1850, when temperatures on average were lower than they are in the modern world (or have been during the 20th century). This doesn't mean there were not decades when temperatures were much like they are today, or that heat waves were absent. Samuel Pepys records a famous heat wave for example. In the Tudor period men wore those long pantie hose things and tucked their pantaloons into them. The Tudors thrived during the 16th century. In the 17th century we had men in long frock coats and wide brimmed hats, and long trousers designed to keep out the cold – the typical attire of the Pilgrim Fathers (as an example). It is pretty clear that temperatures, on average, were colder in the 17th than they were in the 16th centuries. In fact, the 16th century included what was once termed the 'Little Medieval Warm Period' while the 17th is renowned as the Little Ice Age – both terms exaggerating the reality. The larger Medieval Warm Period occupies half of the 10th century and all of the 11th and most of the 12th centuries – over two hundred years of temperatures warmer even than in the modern world. How do we know this – Vikings were farming in some parts of Greenland. Retreating ice in the modern world has revealed their farms and fields – and this can only be because it was warmer (and subsequently covered in ice during the cooler climate regime that dominated large parts of the last 1800 years.

You will also notice that 1800 years ago Europe was basking in the Roman Warm Period. Why didn't they begin their graph 2000 years ago – or around 200BC? That would have spoiled the warming trend. In other words, a clever bit of cherry picking – which doesn't get away from the fact that the last two thousands years has involved some very cool climate, not least during the 6th century AD, and again in the 9th and first half of the 10th century AD. No wonder you can jiggle the data around and get a cooling trend – and then add your hockey stick uptick to make it look like it has warmed a lot (when in fact the warming has been consistent over the last 100 years and not just in the 1990s or 2000s).

Not much else to say about that one but at http://phys.org/print359010904.html … we are told solar activity is declining and the Earth is cooling – oh no, not again, Warming and cooling is taking place all the time. However, we are being told the Earth is falling into another Little Ice Age – if not the beginnings of another Ice Age for the more gullible. The reason for the hype is that solar activity, as far as sun spots and CMEs are concerned, is indeed less than what it was in the 1990s and 2000s. They point their finger at the Maunder Minimum – which began about 1645 and lasted around 70 years. I've often wondered if clouds were more prominent in the cool weather of the period and sun spots more difficult to detect, but we have to accept that we had lots of people equipped with telescopes and they were fascinated by the natural world – giving rise to science as we know it. All this took off in the late 17th and early 18th centuries – right bang square within the so called Maunder Minimum.

Russian scientists are at the fore-front of the global cooling hype – which after all is not too surprising as it gets very cold in Russia, even during the so called global warming period, yet alone during a global cooling shift. As a result of that it is useful to get a second, and a third opinion – and the story can be found elsewhere, at https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/08/15/solar-activity-is-declining-w… … for example. Two extremes – one lot says the world is warming, and another lot say the world is going to get a lot colder. I ain't about to buy a Panama hat – or a Russian hat made of a beaver pelt.

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