In January of 2022 the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Hai’pai submarine volcano erupted violently. It’s intensity was VEI-6, similar to Pinatubo in 1991. However, in the recent case, the volcanic plume reached an altitude of 35 miles, or 57 km. It sent atmospheric shock waves, sonic booms, and tsunami waves around the world. Analysing data from NASAs Ionospheric Connection Explorer [ICON] and ESAs Swarm satellites, scientists found that in the hours following the eruption hurricane speed winds and unusual electric currents formed in the ionosphere – earth’s electrified upper atmosphere at the edge of space. NASA JPL also noted the eruption in the South Pacific blasted an enormous plume of water vapour into the earth’s atmosphere. The amount of water in the atmosphere was enough to affect earth’s global average temperature they concluded. See for example https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere … and https://nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2022/sun/nasa-mission-finds-tonga-volcanic-eruption-effects-reached-space … In the summary of the JPL article we are told, ‘unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface but rather, it could warm the surface due to the excess of water vapour.’ This appears to have also attracted US weathermen [meteorologists] Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi. They identified warm spots in the oceans some time ago which appear to be the same as those hot spots noted by Professor Kim of Hong Kong University [see post last week]. He attributed it to submarine volcanoes. Latterly, Joe Bastardi, a week ago, claimed submarine volcanoes had caused a warming of the atmosphere – especially over the Arctic. In other words, the Tonga volcano may have caused another peak in atmospheric temperature trends in late 2022 – and moving forwards, in early 2023. Does this explain the warm October and November weather? Does it mean a warm winter in Europe?
The alarmist media and activists, of course, are convinced the warmth is down to co2 increases in the atmosphere, a gas that is much smaller, and weaker, than water vapour. We live on a water planet. It influences our weather. We seem to have an extra dose of water in the upper atmosphere derived from the Pacific Ocean. You would not hear that from the climate change lobby. Neither would you know about it from the media, who are deeply involved in the alarmism. Neither would you know about the urban heat island effect as surface air temperature data used by the IPCC is not adjusted to account for urbanisation. One of the reasons why models always run hot. Urbanisation around the world is a result of steeply rising population levels and rural folk seeking a better life in the cities. The urban heat island effect represents the replacing of greenery with pavements, and by using drainage [the drain network] to eliminate wet areas [after a downpour]. Dr Roy Spencer is the author of a piece explaining what is needed to adjust the surface data in order to neutralise the urbanisation effect. Basically, when the effect is fed into the data, global warming is reduced, by up to 50 per cent. In other words, there is a significant amount less warming than claimed by the models. No wonder they do not correspond with reality. See https://sepp.org … click on the WeekThat Was, and November 5th 2022.
Meanwhile, over at https://notrickszone.com/2022/11/07/new-paradigm-shifting-study-finds-annual-co2-flux-is-driven-by-temperature-dependent-sea-ice-flux/ … in a new study annual co2 and methane change rates lag behind changes in sea ice extent by 7 and 5 months respectively. The correlation is described as robust and shows that co2 change are responsive to ring temperatures, and not the other way around as the climate change lobby says. There is nothing unusual in this latest finding as it has been known for a long time that paleo temperature data shows a lag in co2 levels when the world warms up – as in after the last Ice Age. The catastrophic factor may of course play a role but in the new study the evidence, over the last 45 years, seems to bear the process out, without a catastrophic event occurring.