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6 June 2011
Climate change

At http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/6/6/koutsoyiannis-2011.html (or at simply www.bishop-hill.net June 6th) there is an interesting post by Doug Keenan on a paper by Koutsoyiannis which seems to show little empirical evidence of rising global temperatures and that the case supporting AGW rests almost entirely on computer simulation – but everybody knows that already. Basically, IPCC climate scientists make an assumption known as ARI – derived from the statistical concept of 'first order autoregression'. No evidence or logic is provided to support such an assumption, he says – but is it ever? This is about statistics, and the idea a hot or cold previous year affects the following year(s) and therefore transferred to the climate, a statistical method that would produce a step by step rise in global temperature – but lacking any actual observation of that happening. I don't know if it is all as simple as that but assuredly statistical methods come into it – and it is unclear how adept climate scientists are with statistical methodology as Steve McIntyre and others have accused them of naivity on that count on several occasions. You can of course read all Doug Keenan's articles on climate and other topics at his web site www.informath.org/

At http://notrickszone.com/2011/06/05/germanys-biogas-bhopal-deadly-e-coli-… is a post derived from Die Welt and claims veterinary and medical 'experts' (a blanket terminology of dubious worth) are saying biogas production plants may be the cause of E. coli bacteria that is causing problems in Germany – but currently on the wane. Is this another green dream gone sour as Pierre Gosselin seems to favour or another false trail? Mixing manure and biogas plant waste with food is common practise in organic agriculture (see http://sustainableagrisystems.com ) but at the moment the biogas industry is in strict denial – and organic farmers, green spokespeople and the like. There may well be some kind of connection with dry weather in April and May in northern Germany, where the outbreak is centred, allowing spores to remain on plants (normally rain would wash the growing plants). What is interesting is that most of the German biogas plants are situated in the area of the outbreak – thousands of them. 

Over at http://scottishsceptic.wordpress.com/2011/06/06/insane-use-of-low-dosage… the Scottish Sceptic takes a blast at farming methods that lie at the root of the growth of antibiotic immunity of bacteria, having a direct connection, he says, to the spread of MRSA in hospitals – and directly connected to the E. cole outbreak in Germany. He claims we are all probably walking around with a potential epidemic inside our own bodies – with an origin in antibiotics in the meat we eat. The vegetarians cannot escape either because animal manure is used to grow the food they eat. 

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