At http://phys.org/print352011250.html … and https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/05/28/global-climate-on-the-verge-o… … we see that it has taken a decade for the consensus climate people to admit global warming has stalled – in spite of adjusted temperature data. Not only has it reached a plateau, so to speak, the first line of defence, it is actually cooling – and the story line is being taken up by more and more researchers jumping on the bandwagon with an eye on the post-co2 era and their jobs. Expect an avalanche of cooling predictions in the next few months.
In this instance it is the University of Southampton and the National Oceanography Centre (in the UK) that says global climate is about to nose dive (by inference rather than literally). They have done excellent research on the oceans in the past – and they continue in the same vein. They say global climate is about to cool – and it could last a number of decades. They blame a cooling of the Atlantic – which appears to imply all that warm water, a few years ago, with an origin in the tropical Pacific, that wound its way around the world, up through the South and North Atlantic oceans, resulting in the melting of Arctic summer sea ice, has now dissipated, driven out of the atmosphere and into space (by the process of water transfer between oceans and atmosphere and the wide open space above the North Pole). We live in a water world – and this new paper emphasizes that fact.
Rather than admit we have entered the second 30 year section of the 60 year solar cycle (or the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation) which is cooler on average than the first 30 year section of the cycle (the first is dominated by El Ninos and the second by La Ninas – although both exist in each 30 year section), the authors are still forced to contain themselves within the consensus boundaries. However, it is pretty clear that in the earlier 30 year periods, historically, the UK tended to have drier summer months than the warm cycle years dominated by El Ninos (when UK summers were often warm and wet). The change in climate, from warm to cool may not be good news for Scotland – even less for the Sahel. The droughts and famines in the 1960s all took place in the last 30 year cooling phase. How will it affect monsoon rains over Asia?
The study is published in the otherwise green journal Nature and is all about natural variability – which may imply Nature is actually having a look at nature itself rather than the propaganda of the environmentalist lobby. If it is happening in Nature it could happen elsewhere – any time soon. This is interesting as a notable CAGW proponent is quoted at www.bishop-hill.net (last week) wishing for a giant El Nino event to bring global warming back to life. She was so full of it she could not see the irony – she was wishing for a natural event to keep her sacrosanct belief system intact. Unfortunately for her, in the cooling 30 year periods, El Ninos generally have less strength than in the warm 30 year periods – so it is unlikely to happen to the degree she desired. Not only that an El Nino in the 30 year cooling period is likely to be closely followed by a La Nina – and if a powerful El NIno did occur it would be balanced out by an even more powerful La Nina (the opposite happens in the warming 30 year periods). In a nutshell, she is snookered.
It goes on to say the ocean currents are determined by the same atmospheric conditions that control the position of the jet streams. The authors claim less heat is transferred northwards from the tropics because the currents are weak – a sort of chicken and egg situation. All this has been happening since 2006, yet it is only now reaching mainstream (or admitted by mainstream – who were in denial as their models had predicted continuing and unabated warming). The RAPID Array satellite system has been beaming back real world data for the last ten years – and something had to give in the end (I suppose). However, the dinosaurs in parliament will take a few years to catch up with reality – we may expect.
Tall Bloke has the same press release from the University of Southampton but points out that ocean currents have featured in numerous post at his blog (and like wise at Watts Up With That). For instance, https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/03/24/much-alarmist-ado-about-amoc-… … and https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/06/delayed-oscillator-model-sugg… … or Vukcevic at https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/10/m-a-vukcevic-north-atlantic-o…
Some of the comments at Tall Bloke are quite amusing. At https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/27/evidence-is-mounting-oceans-make… – which should perhaps read, are an important factor in the climate system. There is evidence the idea is being strongly resisted – some people can't be weaned off the co2 belief system (somewhat like druggies being dried out against their wishes). However, at www.livescience.com/50998-jet-stream-controls-atlantic-climate-cycles.html … and we may also remember that the solar wind also plays a significant role in the positioning of the jet stream. Its all up for grabs – or so it seems.