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Zbignew Jaworowski

2 June 2015
Climate change

Tim Cullen has another cracker at https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/the-ice-age-is-coming/ … where the Ice Age refers to the assumption inter glacials last around 10,000 years in duration – and the Holocene is already that hoary. Therefore, an Ice Age is in the offing – or that is the thinking.The interesting, or amusing bit is that the idea of an upcoming Ice Age upset the CAGW crowd – who are convinced and desperately cling to the belief that the world is going to get warmer and warmer and will eventually become too hot for humans to survive (and our grandchildren will suffer badly). Therefore, to keep the faith alive, they tried to drown out the message – as an Ice Age was an unwanted guest in their parlour.

Jaworowski came to be regarded as a spurious scientist by the Green Blob, in spite of the fact he was somebody that had spent a career exploring the innards of glaciers around the world and had a good handle on what made them tick. He had his feet firmly on the ground and his arguments are based on real observations while climate scientists use computer models – and wonky thinking.

Whether you accept the consensus theory regards Ice Ages recurring over millions of years or prefer to think in terms of there might be alternative explanations (without necessarily opting for any particular possibility) is neither here nor there. Jaworowksi thought it pointless to worry about co2 levels as the future was more likely to be colder than warmer. A temporary rise in global temperatures might actually be regarded as a good thing as it may allay the next Ice Age. Jaworowski of course was more down to earth than that – he was quite sure co2 was not a problem, and it was ludicrous to think it might be.In short, he was unimpressed by the co2 hypothesis. He went on to say water vapour formed 90 per cent of the greenhouse effect – whereas co2 only contributed around 3 per cent. Not only that, man made co2 was a fraction of the 3 per cent. How could co2 from power stations and diesel engines possibly cause global temperatures to rise to alarming levels. In effect, he was saying it was hogwash. In other words, co2 shriekers had it all wrong. Water was the essential ingredient of our climate system.

Jaworowski upset the shrieking ones further by openly criticising the IPPC Report that had recently been issued. It had purposely omitted water from all its tables comparing the greenhouse effect of the different atmospheric components. If they had included water it would have dwarfed all the others and any member of the public would have been able to see, straight out and staring them in the face, that co2 was a puny greenhouse gas and there was no need to get excited – even the politicos might have been able to understand the science was not quite what it was projected to be.

Jaworowski thought the Ice Ages were a result of the passage of our solar system through the spiral arms of the Milky Way and a variation in cosmic ray numbers led to the highs and lows in climate. See for instance, www.21stcenturysciencetech.com and article from the winter of 2003-4 on global warming or go to www.phys.huji.ac.il/~shaviv/Ice-ages-GSAToday.pdf Jaworowski was interviewed at www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Article_2010/Jaworowski_interview.pdf

Jaworowski predicted a fall in global temperatures – and this is exactly what is happening (as part of a cycle of warm and cool) with the bottom of the dip panning out between 2121 and 2126 (and then they start to rise again).

Tim Cullen also has another post – https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/05/27/atmospheric-layers/ … which is an eye opener and an excellent source of information. Apparently, the mainstream have had a tendency to ignore the middle atmosphere, probably because it is the least understood. Another peculiarity of mainstream is they tend to prefer reporting atmospheric density in the middle atmosphere in kilograms per cubic metre rather than the more usual particle unit per cubic centimetre. This has the effect of making it appear the atmosphere above 35km is almost devoid of particles and importance. This is very misleading he says because at an altitude of 1000km the atmospheric particle count is still very high (with Helium and Hydrogen the dominant particles).

The middle atmosphere is that between 30 and 100km high and embraces the transition from the stratosphere to the thermosphere. The mesopause is at 90km and is the coldest part of the atmosphere. Most importantly, it includes the Mesosphere where the Ionosphere meets and plasma recombination takes place. The most visible layer if that of the noctilucent clouds, at 80km high – a polar mesospheric cloud layer visible in deep twilight formed from crystals of water ice illuminated by sunlight below the horizon.

We have a sodium layer in the Mesosphere – a band of non-ionised atoms of sodium (at 80 to 105km). There are vapor and plasma layers created by meteoroids and the presence of micrometeorites (dust in the upper atmosphere). Interestingly, the sodium in the sodium layer origins in meteorites. The atmosphere between 100 and 250km high is associated with nocturnal flourescence of atmospheric gases. These are caused by cosmic rays, the solar wind and magnetospheric plasma inter-acting with the upper atmosphere. The lithium layer glows in the twilight on the odd occasion. There are also Potassium and Calcium layers and Sporadic E radio propagation, all of them barely understood, as well as iron and manganese content and so on and so on. Observational evidence indicates atmospheric pressure above 8km in altitude (as far as 90km) is determined by spallation, photodissociation, ionisation, electron capture and by recombination (see also https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/atmospheric-science-the-lost-…


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