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PDO mischief

16 January 2016
Climate change

The Climategate emails were a boon to climate sceptics as they revealed what some scientists really thought. For example, this one from Swansea University – 'what if climate change appears to be just mainly a multi-decadal natural fluctuation? They'll kill us … ' which is code for we'll be laughed out of the limelight (see third comment at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/14/has-the-pdo-flipped/

The next comment by a Chris Beal says the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is driven by solar cycles. The reason this is in the news is that a paper by a leading climate scientist known from the Climategate email shake down has decided to blame the recent weather not just on the El Nino that was ramped up by the CAGW alarmists, which was inadequate as an explanation, but on the turnover of the PDO occurring in synchronicity with the El Nino. The comments then introduce us to a bit of an education on the PDO. The author of the piece is not exactly coming out too sweet and neither is the climate scientist attempt to baffle and cause confusion.

What might be happening is a recognition that the El Nino that was given full hype hasn't turned out to be the really big one the alarmists had been cheerleading for so something else must be behind the warmth of the last couple of months of 2015 – and the Sun as far as mainstream is out of the question – don't want to look there, we might see something we don't want to.

The 60 year solar cycle is invoked once again – comes up a bit too often nowadays. It seems a bit too simple a solution. One commenter says that if the El Nino did have an effect on the PDO then it is just as easy for the upcoming La Nina (by the end of 2016) to flip it back again. 

See also https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/an-introduction-to-enso-amo-… … where he says the PDO index is a statistically created data set that is inversely related to multi decadal variations in sea surface temperatures in the N Pacific. He goes on to say the PDO subject adds confusion to discussions of surface temperature – a bit of a dog's basket.

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