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Dispelling Milankovitch

5 October 2022
Climate change, Geology

At https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2022/01/03/ned-nikolov-dispelling-the-milankovitch-myth/ … there is a long post with comments by Ned Nikolov. The title is perhaps a little misleading as the Milankovitch calculations were made prior to the use of computers, simulation models, and electronic calculators. It should also be borne in mind that his theory was not taken up by mainstream uniformitarians until they were able to secure it to a gradualist process. The discovery of cycles in oxygen isotopes of oceanic plankton, such as foraminifera, in the North Atlantic as well as stripes on the seafloor, led to its current position as the favourite explanation of the ice ages. The first two were used to anchor the changes at 100,000 year intervals in the 1950s. This is near to the orbit of the Sun around its barycentre, as explained by Rhodes Fairbridge. However, it was decided these cycles had more to do with the orbital changes between earth and the sun as calculated by Milankovitch. One can only be in awe of his ability to do those calculations – by brain power. In other words, several things came together in order for Milankovitch being accepted.

Ice Age theory began long before Milankovitch, and he proposed his theory to account for them. The idea of several ice ages affecting Europe came about as the likes of Agaziz and others had noticed evidence of glacial advances in the Alps and northern Europe on at least four occasions. The most prominent one occurred around 450,000 years ago – as it is now dated. Hence, one can see this is outside a specific 100,000 year cycle. Glaciers reached as far south as East Anglia. There is a lot of geological evidence for this. It cannot be denied. Later, mainstream somewhat mauled the Agassiz research and like Milankovitch, his original findings were watered down to fit the uniformitarian scheme. There are now countless ice ages according to mainstream. Mind you, they had to invent a new geological period in order to impose them on the geochronology framework. It is known as the Pleistocene.

I have wondered, if perhaps, mainstream inital rejection of all that work put in by Milankovitch, was the implications it may have posed for uniformitarian theory. He had produced a long winded and very slow change in earth’s orbit around the sun but it was also another way of saying that small changes in the rotation of the earth could create an ice cap at the poles in a slightly different position to that of today. From the view of humans in Europe or North America, for example, it would appear as if the ice cap had grown. How much research was undertaken in the Arctic region?

A similar questioning of Milankovitch can be found at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/01/what-is-milankovitch-theory-what-is-it-not-and-what-can-we-learn-from-it/ … which is by John A Parmatola, a consultant at the RAND think tank with a PhD in Theoretical Physics. Milankovitch produced an amazing piece of mathematics that was used to colour our view of the past. One can read both links, and the comments that go with them, as it is an interesting debate.

See also the Science and Environmental Policay Project [SEPP] newsletter of 1-10-2022 at https://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm … which has an obituary on the Canadian, Timothy Ball. He was a professor of geography and historical climatology, and one of the victims of the Green Blob. His crime was having read and written about weather records of the Hudson Bay Company, long beofe the alarmist narrative took over. When he dared to criticise the alarmist mantra he was targeted as a denier. These weather records of the 18th and 19th centuries show quite clearly that climate has warmed and cooled on many occasions, and modern warming is nothing out of the ordinary. It is a natural process that has been going on for as long as records exist. He was sued by Michael Mann and actually won the case. Mann was ordered to pay the court costs but has so far not done so, in spite of the passage of years, leaving Ball in a financial predicament. This incident actually tells us all we want to know about the alarmists. They are earning huge sums of money from renewable subsidies and yet are too mean to pay the costs of someone with no financial clout.

The newsletter continues with a piece on hurricanes and how the two recent tropical storms have been elevated by hysterical alarmism. Paul Homewood, thankfully, is on the button. As far as Hurricane Ian is concerned, which reached landfall in Florida, he notes that 130Kt does not correlate with 940MB pressure. He says the reporting on the Hurrican intensity has been not just exaggerated but falsified. Satellite data, for example, contradicts the claims. He goes on to predict the claim of 150 mph winds will be quietly dropped – as this is what has happened in similar incidents in the past. No admittance of the hype. Just move on to something else.

Another subject homed in on the assumption the race to net zero relies on abundant resources of rare earth metals. In contradiction, there is a shortage of rare earth metals that shows no sign of improving in the near future. In spite of this the Green Blob and the political class blunder onwards on the assumption they are available – when they are not. For another take on this go to Benny Peiser at https://www.thegwpf.org … on how Net Zero can never be achieved and at some point the political class will be forced to reinstate fossil fuels. Unless of course, we have mastered nuclear fusion technology in the meantime.


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